Building the new order
Written by Pablo González and Pedro Nonay, trying to know how the new world will be.
Entry 11
WWIII: Race and religion.
Nothing has changed.
October 24, 2023
My new context selection.
For some time I have been starting all my entries with this “new context” heading.
It is evident that the most important thing that has happened since I wrote the previous entry (changes in the context) is the new WAR between Israel and Palestine (I capitalize the whole word, and not only the first letter, as I have been doing with Ukraine War, because I consider that it is even more decisive for the world order).
I consider the matter so important, that I will not deal with it in this epigraph, but in the body of the entry (a little further down). By the way, I already said in the previous entry that the change of context was accelerating, and this is the demonstration.
The other things that I think are worth citing in terms of new context are:
- Putin attended the Silk Road Summit in China on October 18. The BBC says that “he was feted” (here). More than 130 countries from the so-called Global South (plus the Prime Minister of Hungary) attended.
It is striking how little this news has been published in the Western media, as well as the strength that China has been showing in its support for its bloc of countries (which is probably why the news has been hushed up). It is more than likely that, in private meetings, Xi has given Putin new support and instructions.
- It has been little publicized, but another pipeline has suffered attacks. It is one between Finland and Estonia. More problems for energy supply, with winter starting (news here).
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I already said in the previous entry that this was a digression in what I had been discussing about raw materials. Due to the importance of the Hamas attacks on Israel, I have decided that this one will be another aside.
Disclaimer.
Society is so polarized in the face of what has happened that it is not easy to analyze the situation without one side (or the other) interpreting that what I am going to study here is contrary to their positions, and deducing that “I support one side or the other”.
Moreover, the human damages are so many (and will be much more), that talking about economic or geostrategic issues may seem disrespectful (far from what I intend).
Before I continue, I want to make it clear that I have no doubt that Hamas is a terrorist group, and that its attacks in Israel have been terrorism of the most heartless kind.
I also want to make it clear that in this entry I am going to try to analyze the situation from all points of view, which leads me to try to understand the motives of the parties, avoiding being binary, of the type that things can only be black or white.
Serious terrorist attacks in Israel.
So much has been published that there is no need to describe what happened (horrifying). You can see the news here, where they also advance that the economic strength of the West is going to weaken.
What is necessary to study are the possible evolutions of this WAR. It is evident that this is a very decisive moment for world stability, as well as very sad for those affected.
What is going to happen.
Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball. But, after my readings, conversations, and analysis, I do have a theory about what is most likely to happen, and I set it out below.
The root cause.
Everything that has been happening in recent years (whether it has been coordinated and planned in advance or not) is being used by the “powerful” for a specific objective: to force the establishment of a new world order.
As is logical (although not humanitarian), each of these “powerful” people tries to manipulate events in order to reinforce their share of power in this future new order.
For this new order to begin, the old order must be surrendered (or greatly reformed). And, as the old order can be summed up in the quasi world control by the West, the new order needs to weaken the West in order to take hold.
The West was already severely weakened by the pandemic, inflation, supply problems, the Ukrainian War with its consumption of military and economic resources, as well as the radicalization of opinions within their countries, …
Moreover, the West is fragmented, with the US still somewhat buoyant, and Europe in rapid decline.
The problem of relations between Israel and Palestine is not new. It is logical (although very sad) that this is the moment when the Hamas terrorist attack takes place and Israel’s reaction has been sought. What is certain is that it is an appropriate moment to further weaken the West. And it is also true that the military tension in Israel helps a lot to do that:
- The West was already in bad financial shape (debt and inflation) to maintain support for Ukraine. It will be worse with yet another war.
- The West already had a lot of internal radicalization of opinions. This radicalization will increase with the incorporation of the religious and racial factor.
- The West aspired to sign understandings between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The attacks have prevented that signature. The Muslim world is going to turn away from the West.
- The West already had problems of supplies of the “old energy” (fossil one) because of the Ukrainian War (gas) and the embargoes on Russia (oil). Israel’s WAR is going to increase them because of the strained relations with the Arab countries.
- The Jewish world is very relevant in the upper echelons of the Western economy and commerce. Now, out of necessity, they will divert resources to support their country of reference (Israel), and withdraw them from the West.
The result is that the more serious this new WAR becomes, the happier the enemies of the West will be. Even if Israel devastates Gaza, the West will be greatly weakened.
The saddest thing is that those who make these decisions do not care too much about the deaths in Israel, nor in Gaza, nor in the West (because of the chains of terrorist attacks that will occur, the invisible enemy).
Moreover, it strikes me that, in the meantime, China remains a spectator, watching the West weaken. As in Ukraine, all it will do (I think) is lend some indirect support to the Muslim world. It will also offer to be the peace coordinator at a time that suits it, when it sees the West sufficiently weakened to accept to “divide” the world without having to go to the great military war between China and the USA. And I clarify that I said “military war”, because what we have now is really world war (WWIII), but by more means than the military, such as inflation, the loss of power of the dollar, energy supplies, internal polarization of the West, …
Most likely evolution: Spiral effect.
Having stated the background situation, what I think is most likely to happen (unfortunately) is the following:
- Israel will attack Gaza. After his statements, and because of the pressure from his society, he has to do some revenge. As they say here, the aim of the attacks was to provoke them.
However, under pressure from the West, Israel has to do so in the least damaging way possible. They will try to make sure that the consequences of the conflict are not exaggerated.
- Iran, with the excuse of helping Gaza (I say excuse, because what matters to Iran is not the people of Gaza, but to be the head of the Muslim world), will try to make the conflict bigger. To do so, they can either attack somehow to Israel, or provoke it more so that Israel will attack them.
- In the meantime, the price of oil will rise sharply. With that, there will be more inflation and more social unrest in the West (news here).
- There will be many terrorist attacks in the West. Small ones, but many. This will increase fear in the West, and the problems of coexistence of races and religions will increase.
- NATO will not intervene jointly in the conflict. Israel is a NATO partner, but not a member. Therefore, there is no obligation to intervene in defense of one of the members (it is well explained here). And it will not be possible to get the support of the other members to intervene without being obliged.
- The US may make some attack in support of Israel, but it will meet with so much external and internal rejection that it will not be able to take it to total war. They will be “special operations” of the hostage rescue type, shooting down missiles to avoid damage, …
- In the meantime, Russia will step up its attacks in Ukraine. It will do so to take advantage of the weakness of the West and make them divert resources.
By the same token, perhaps other conflicts will open up elsewhere, although I don’t think it will be in Taiwan yet, at least until they have their elections.
- At the moment when the tension is at its highest (and the weakness of the West as well), China will make its peace offer. It will do so under the “kostum” of BRICS+. It will be after January, which is when it will be known whether the countries invited to join BRICS do so. Among those countries are Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. If all (or some) join, BRICS+ will be able to claim to represent the Muslim world as well.
The peace offer will be global, for the different military wars, and for the other wars (inflation, currency power, energy supplies, food, …).
The West will probably accept the negotiation, because it will not have the strength to attempt a world war that it might lose.
I imagine the offer with China saying something along the lines of, “I appease the BRICS in Ukraine, Israel, and other places. I guarantee Israel’s livelihood. I also offer agreements for the solution of energy, raw materials, and inflation in the West. But I ask for a new Bretton Woods, and that you let me keep Taiwan.”
Perhaps a body in charge of world peace will be created afterwards, something like a blue helmets doing the work of a world NATO.
- Israel can hold the card of renouncing further revenge to save the West (which would be debts to be collected on its part).
- After the negotiation, the treaties defining the new world order will be signed. It may be a signing of all treaties at the same time, or staggered signatures over time for each issue.
As for the time to reach these treaty signatures, it is logically very difficult to estimate them with precision. It is clear, however, that they are closely related to the severity of the events. The faster they evolve into very serious ones, the faster the greater weakness of the West, and the sooner it will accept the negotiation (before it becomes even weaker). In any case, if the speed is maximum, I do not think it will be before January, as this is the date when the evolution of the BRICS+ memberships will be known. And, if the speed is very slow, it could be two or three years, not much more, because the degradation of the world economy would be unsustainable (and because those are the times of the recent wars).
I will now explain the reasons that lead me to think this way, and I will also explain the other possible alternatives.
Scale leap: race and religion.
Whether it was all programmed together or not, the consequence is that this attack on Israel (and its response), together with the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflation, … will result in a further weakening of Western society, and a greater strength of the BRICS world (especially China).
What has happened now is a leap in scale. It is much more than a territorial dispute, as is the case in Ukraine. People’s beliefs are involved, which makes the support or rejection of non-participants in the WAR more virulent.
Beyond a war between Israel and Palestine, it is already a war between Judaism and Islam (in any territory), and one tries to deduce the support of Christianity for Israel.
Where there is doubt is in the position of the other major religions (Confucianism, Taoism, Buddhism, …), which perhaps it is no coincidence that they are the majority religions in China and India.
The following map, extracted from Wikipedia, shows the majority religions by country.
It is, therefore, a fight between distant relatives, since it must not be forgotten that Judaism, Christianity and Islam are all considered continuists of Abraham.
And, to make matters worse, problems of racism are also involved. This is so because Christianity and Islam are not religions related to a specific ethnicity (race), but Judaism is. It is true, and very dangerous, the resurgence of anti-Zionist sentiments in the world. Most especially among the part of the West that claims to be the defender of the weaks. A large part of the Western left is a traditional defender of Palestine and, therefore, today an enemy of Israel. Strange consequence of a racist left.
The thing is, outside of the territories at WAR, there are very deep feelings involved (racism and religion). That, unfortunately, allows leaders to manipulate the masses more easily to support them in their crazy ideas that can lead us all to disaster.
It would be very desirable to stop this conflict as soon as possible, because once hatred between races and religions is fomented, it is very difficult to stop it. The masses do not allow it. Comparing it with the “little war” between Russia and Ukraine, if tomorrow there is a peace agreement, no masses in countries outside the conflict will violently oppose it (political and financial interests may do so, but not the masses). However, if this new and unfortunate conflict continues, peace will not be easy, even if it is wanted by political and financial forces.
Proof of this is that in Iran they have called for a “Friday of rage”, encouraging attacks by Islamic groups in the West, and all Western cities with large Muslim populations (many cities) are frightened and on alert. In fact, there has already been an attack in France (news here), and others undeclared.
If this “anger” were to become generalized with attacks in the West, we would have a war with an “invisible enemy” in every city. And, the fear of attacks would destabilize normal life in the cities.
Previous circumstances.
Several issues must be taken into account before studying the possible evolutions of this new WAR.
The weakness of the West.
As I have already said, because of inflation, the pandemic, the Ukraine War, access to energy and raw materials, the BRICS+ agreements … It is a fact that the West is very weakened.
Looking at this weakness in relation to the new Israel-Palestine conflict, it is very striking to see the following map. It is that of the countries that have recognized the existence of the state of Palestine. It is almost identical to the map of the countries that support the BRICS+ world.
Everything suggests that activating these Hamas attacks now is a way to provoke Israel. This increases the weakness of the West. It is happening because of the differences in the support of Western political parties. By the increase of attacks in their cities. Because of the economic problems of helping in a new war. Because of the increase in inflation after the foreseeable rise in oil prices and the logistical problems, …
Israel in the face of the new world order.
Today it is a fact that Israel belongs to the West. Although it should not be ruled out that it may change sides, since what is important for them is the continuity of their state, not of any particular ideology.
What has always mattered to the Jewish world, apart from maintaining its religion within its race, is to continue its DNA as a globalized, pioneering and commercial people, which generates a dominant presence in world trade. And, if what happens now is that China becomes one of the dominant forces, it does not sound so strange that they would want to move closer to it, but that option does not seem the most likely in the short term, much less if the Muslim world joins the BRICS+.
That said, given the above map, if they want to make this rapprochement with China, they had better recognize Palestine and help it to exist. By the way, if they do it peacefully (truly disassociating Palestine from Hamas), that would be a happy end to this conflict for them and for humanity, although I admit that I do not see it very likely.
The growth of the BRICS countries.
Regarding the evolution in the change of world power, the following graph is very good, where the evolution of the GDP of the BRICS and G7 countries can be seen.
It turns out that by 2023, the BRICS will already account for more of the world’s GDP than the G7.
History.
It is important to remember the historical causes of the conflict.
It is true that in that part of the world there have been great historical events. No less than the birth of the religions in conflict today, the crusades, the kingdom of Jerusalem (of which, by the way, the holder of the dynastic rights is the Spanish king Felipe VI), …
But, it is also true that, except for brief occasions, that land has never been an independent country since Ramses II. Neither ancient Palestine, nor ancient Israel. It has always belonged to different empires (Egypt, Rome, Eastern Roman, Ottoman, British protectorate), until the founding of the present state of Israel in 1948.
The story is nicely summarized in the video you can see here, which was passed on to me by a good friend in the Jewish community (thanks, David).
Therefore, the issue of historical rights is not at all clear. For none of the parties.
What is certain is that, in that land, whoever governed, Jews and Muslims, and even Christians (with greater or lesser conflicts at any given time) have always coexisted.
The different points of view.
In order to try to form an opinion, I have searched for readings from very different sources. I summarize below the ones I found most relevant, and provide the link to the specific articles.
I found this article from El Confidencial very complete. They make a good summary of who wins and who loses with the conflict. It comes to say that the big loser, of course, is the population that is going to die. The West also loses. Iran and Russia win. And China has an open opportunity.
Ramzy Baroud states the Palestinian point of view here. He says that Netayahu has already lost. That it was a failure of his government not to prevent the attack. That without full occupation of Gaza they won’t finish Hamas. And that the Israeli army is not good at the hand-to-hand fighting it will take. Also that even if they manage to completely take Gaza, they will have trouble holding it. He articulates it well, although it must be remembered that it is a self-serving point of view.
Paul Mason (the British leftist who has long been trying to tell the left that it is wrong) says here that the Hamas attack may have been useful in destabilizing the West, but that it does not seem to him that “multipolarity” will bring anything but chaos.
Ray Dalio is glad (here) that, for the time being, the war has not spread to be one between the USA and China. He reminds us that history shows that, about wars, you know how they start, but not how they end. He makes it clear that the weakness of the West is one of the reasons for its enemies to attack it. And that countries and people will be forced to choose sides. He calls for the avoidance of extremism and the search for agreements among all.
I came across an interesting article by Adebayo Adeniran (here). He comes to say that Putin has already won. That his goal was not to win Ukraine, but to weaken the West economically and to control raw materials (in Ukraine and in Africa). And that he has succeeded.
Also interesting is this interview with General Petraeus (the man who was responsible for the Iraq war and who today works as an advisor to KKR, the large multinational business group). Among other things, he says that today almost any action has been weaponized. He also says that what happened to him in Iraq can happen to Israel when, after conquering the city of Najaf, he told his superior: “I have good news and bad news. The good news is that we have taken Najaf. The bad news is that we have taken it, what do we do there now?” By this he means that Israel will have problems if it occupies Gaza, even if it wins.
Here, besides making a good analysis of the situation, they give a very disturbing news. They say that Ukrainian weapons have ended up in the hands of Hamas.
The other alternatives of evolution of the WAR.
At the beginning of this entry, I have already stated the alternative evolution that I see as the most probable.
The other alternatives are basically the following:
- That we actually reach total military WWIII. It would be horrific, and civilization might even disappear. No idea if anyone would win or if they could do anything afterwards.
- That Israel’s WAR against Palestine be confined exclusively to those countries, with the participation of Iran. In this case, the forces would be more balanced. I do not see it very likely, because perhaps the BRICS, or the USA, would want to avoid losing their “friend”, and would escalate the scenario.
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Readings that have interested me.
In the process of writing this entry I have come across many issues of other subjects. I would like to share the following (few, because the entry has become long):
- Yanis Varoufaquis (the former Greek minister of the far left) is promoting his theory of the replacement of capitalism by what he calls “techno-feudalism”. It is not something related to the current war, but it is very much related to the shape the future world is going to take (at least in the Western bloc). His reasoning is very logical. It can be seen here.
- Enrique Dans tells us about a potential future technological device that will replace the cell phone and change the way we relate to data and people. It would be a bone conduction headset (which does not block our ear to listen to ambient sound) in conjunction with a microphone and a camera in the glasses. So, we could do everything by voice (talking and asking the AI), even with images as data. He explains it here.
That’s as far as I go for today. In the next entry I will continue with the subject of raw materials (I think).
As always, I welcome comments on my email: pgonzalez@ie3.org