Building the new order
Written by Pablo González and Pedro Nonay, trying to know how the new world will be.
Entry 6
Wagner Group.
June 30, 2023
New context.
I dedicate this entry, in its entirety, to try to analyze what happened in Russia last weekend with the apparent coup d’état of the Wagner Group in Russia and its “strange” resolution. In doing so, I am departing from the usual dynamic of these entries. I do so because I think that the matter will have importance in the construction of the new order, which is the objective I intend to analyze in this series of entries.
I think we will all agree that what happened fits very badly with logic, and that the way it is told to us fits much less. That should not surprise us, since it is obvious that no leader at war is going to publish his true intentions, motivations and negotiations for the enemy to know. The first conclusion is that everything we have read is most likely a lie, or an attempt at manipulation.
We will also agree that, when it is all over, it is very likely that these events will end up going down in history as a relevant milestone that changed the future (we will have to see which way).
To try to fulfill my goal of understanding what has happened, I have read much of what has been published (everything is impossible), looking for sources as different as possible, both by country of origin and by ideology of the media. In addition, I have searched for data on circumstances before and after the coup d’état (to see what has changed). I have also tried to look for the logics of the expected human behavior of the actors. We’ll see where I get to with the exercise.
Previous circumstances.
Before trying to decipher the “untold”, it is useful to keep in mind some information that was verified prior to the events. I have selected the following:
- Eugeni Prigozhin (the leader of Wagner Group) has a long and successful career as a mercenary in Putin’s service, doing many illegal and bloodthirsty things. He is supposed to have a good relationship with Putin (perhaps now broken, or perhaps only on camera), as well as a large fortune, and a complete lack of scruples.
- Prigozhin was angry with Russia’s military leadership. He was saying that they were not capable.
- The Russian military leadership had given a deadline of July 1 for the Wagner Group to disband and be integrated into the Russian military command. Prigozhin did not like that at all, … and the deadline was running out.
- Wagner Group is a business. Illegal, but a business. It is not an army of civil servants serving a country. So far, Prigozhin has sought profitability, not political success, not medals on the uniform.
Prigozhin was clearly the CEO of that company. What is less clear is whether he was the “major shareholder”. Certainly, his basic “client” was Putin’s Russia.
- Prigozhin’s ideals (if you can call them that) are more extremist than Putin’s.
- Belarus is considered a puppet country of Russia. And the relationship of its president Aleksandr Lukashenko with Putin is more than good and loyal.
- Last June, Russia decided to send nuclear weapons to Belarus (news here). Until now it did not have them. Sending them implies that the relationship of trust is strong. Moreover, even if it is not declared, doing so has to have some objective, since it is not a minor decision.
- In the West, “Stop the War” movements are starting to become strong. In addition to ideological support, they are also supported by high finance, since inflation is not falling fast enough, so central banks must continue to raise interest rates, which is not in the banks’ interest for their stability.
As for Stop the War, it is very interesting what has been published on June 28 by Paul Mason, who, being a relevant British leftist, is against what the current British left is proposing. Basically, he does not want to support surrender to Russia (news here).
- A NATO summit is scheduled for July 11, where they will decide strategies in the face of the Ukrainian war.
Prigozhin’s decision.
There is sure to have been a lot going on in the backroom in the moments leading up to it, but the first thing that has been in the news is the Wagner Group leader’s decision to advance his troops into Russia.
Prigozhin will have thought long and hard before making this decision, he will have chosen a target, and he will have weighed the risks. He is no novice, and it will almost certainly have been his most important decision to date, given the risks of the operation.
I can think of several alternatives that could have encouraged him to make that decision. I will list them, and then try to see the logical fit of each. They are as follows:
- It could be that someone has decided to be a better customer for his business than Putin, and has paid him more for “switching customers”. Given the characteristics of his business, that new client could be USA, China, or anyone, but always in a hidden way.
- It may be that he has gone mad, or felt enlightened. That he has decided to invest his money and his life risk, at a sunk cost, with the aim of winning a presidency of a government (the Russian one), which would fill him with obligations and restrictions in his personal life. I recall that, if he has decided that, he has to pay with his money the salary of 50,000 soldiers (and the costs of their logistics) during the months it takes to achieve success (if he succeeds). And, in the case of failure, he loses the money and the aspired power, and maybe his life.
- It may also be that his client is the same as always (Putin). And that the pact is the same as always (hidden). This option has the variants of being in total agreement with Putin, or that of having differences of opinion.
Whatever the decision he made last Friday, it is always possible that the course of events led him to change it in midstream. If that is the case, the decision to change was very quick, perhaps too quick to be logical.
On this matter, I find this article published in ZeroHedge to be lucid, although aggressive in its text.
What has happened until today.
The fact is that, after the start of its incursion into Russia:
- In a few hours he advanced many kilometers in Russia, with little opposition.
- I said with little opposition, but there was something, although little commented in the media. He shot down several Russian planes (news here).
- After that little opposition, before arriving in Moscow, he decided to stop the incursion. We are told that he accepted a very quick negotiation, after which he decided to go to Belarus with Lukashenko’s support and Putin’s pardon (????).
- It is already confirmed that he has gone to Belarus. There, after these events, there is a Wagner Group army that was not there before, in addition to the nuclear weapons that Putin sent in June (suspiciously close in dates).
- Although Prigozhin did not receive much opposition in his advances, he has not had much support from the masses in his retreat either. The Russian people have not revolted in his favor. If you were looking to find out whether his popular acceptance for rebellion was sufficient, you now know that it is not. On the contrary, Putin, after spending hours of popular doubts, today may feel more supported by the Russian people, not because of what he did, but because an attempt against him did not succeed. In Russia the “iron fist” has always been important, and Putin has given that message now.
- Andrei Rudenko (Russian deputy foreign minister) has visited China that weekend (without being previously scheduled) to meet with the Chinese foreign minister (to inform, or ask for authorization to the “boss” China?). News here.
- Meanwhile, in the global balance, there is no indication that China has withdrawn its veiled support for Putin. Quite the contrary (news here and here).
- It seems that, on Tuesday, a private plane of Prigozhin has flown to Russia from Belarus (to advance negotiations?). News here.
- Another news item that has caught my attention is the possibility that Prigozhin has stolen nuclear material in his foray into Russia (news here). It doesn’t seem very plausible to me, given that he has gone to Belarus, where there are nuclear weapons, but it could always be a “hostage taking” for his future personal security, or for his forays into Africa.
- In the meantime, the announced Ukrainian spring counteroffensive has not achieved anything relevant, and spring has passed. Nor have they had any major breakthroughs taking advantage of the supposed Russian weakness at this time of year (some, but little).
My humble opinions.
After what happened, and considering the previous circumstances exposed, I think that:
- If Prigozhin had chosen to “change clients”, there is no logic in his taking refuge in the house of a friend of Putin (Belarus). It would be a guarantee of his death.
The only explanation for doing so would be that Lukashenko has also abandoned Putin (of which I have seen no indication).
It doesn’t matter if his new client is the USA, China, or whoever. If he has decided that, and if he knows his mercenary business (which he does), the logical alternative would have been to take refuge in the African countries he dominates, or somewhere lost and unknown.
- If Prigozhin had gone mad (or felt enlightened), considering that it meant playing double or nothing, and considering that he knows the rules of the “wild world”, the logical thing to do would have been to go all the way, whatever it was. Especially knowing that he has to pay his troops (no customers), and that he would be out of future business. This option does not fit me.
- The option that remains available (and fits) is that Prigozhin’s decision was motivated by a hidden pact with Putin. Even with some disagreement between them, which I am sure there will have been.
In fact, what seems to have happened is that the Wagner “company” suffered a takeover bid to take control of its work subsidiary in Ukraine (to integrate its troops into the Russian military command before July 1). That the CEO, Prigozhin, did not agree and tried to rebel. That, in his rebellion, he found that the risk was too great. And that his main “client”, and perhaps controlling shareholder (Putin) has offered him a dignified exit, which we will have to see what it will end up being in concrete terms, but which for now means keeping his life, perhaps the control of his “subsidiaries” in Africa, and also perhaps some position in the Ukrainian War from Belarus.
The possible Putin – Wagner Group pact.
If such a secret pact had existed, it would have had many consequences:
- Prigozhin would continue to be paid (as always, illegally).
- Putin would have been able to gauge the level of support among the Russian people for a more extremist alternative to his own. And he has seen that, while there is support, it is not that much. And Putin has shown before the Russian people his “iron fist”, which is something appreciated by the Russian people.
- Somehow, Putin would have “vaccinated” Russia against extremism (beyond his own).
- Now, with mass manipulation media, Putin can sell the people on his success. He may even have an excuse to start peace negotiations with Ukraine.
- The Western world has seen the fear that Russia’s nuclear weapons will end up controlled by a “madman”, more extremist than Putin. Maybe now they would rather prefer Putin have them, so they can help him “not lose the War”, or sign a peace acceptable to the parties (which would be Putin keeping Crimea and Donbass, and the West forcing Ukraine to accept it at the threat of aid withdrawal). I like the approach of this news item in this regard.
Moreover, if the West chooses to continue the war, Putin has an army in Belarus (the Wagner Group), equipped with nuclear weapons. And that is closer to Kiev (and Poland) than Russia itself. Nothing good for the West in the face of that war, which means an improved position for Putin in the face of that option of escalating the War.
And, in the worst case scenario for Putin, if he ends up losing control of Russia, he can always go into exile in Belarus with his friends Lukashenko and Prigozhin, knowing that they have nuclear weapons. That would be something akin to becoming North Korea (not a very relevant place, but unassailable).
What I said some time ago.
I cant´t resist quoting here what I said in my entry of April 3, 2022. It said:
- “It is not yet ruled out this case, but what we have seen in terms of endurance capabilities leads us (as long as the War is only between Russia and Ukraine) to the fact that:
- For economic reasons, Russia is holding out for as long as it takes, and the West is weakening in the meantime.
- For sociological reasons, Russia runs out sooner.
- As we have also seen that it is not in Russia’s interest to ask China for help because, in that case, victory would not be theirs and paying for the support would be expensive for them, the conclusion is that the long war of these two countries alone is almost out of the question.
The logical thing to do would be to look for a botched solution. Something like a cease-fire (not an armistice), even a long one, with which the West can get to work on fixing inflation, and Russia can get ready for the next attack in a few years. In the meantime, Russia gets to keep some territory, even if it is not internationally recognized.
The West would be damaged economically.
And China was delighted, without having done anything.”
I believe that events are moving closer to these hypotheses. The economic damage from inflation in the West is a fact, with banks “on the ropes”. And the sociological damage in Russia is what has produced this apparent coup d’état. The “botched” exit may be perfectly reflected in what has happened these days. And that of China “delighted” is evident.
It seems that the takeover bid for the Wagner Group, attempted by the Russian military command, has paid off by taking away CEO Prigozhin’s business in Ukraine, but leaving him the one in Africa. Moreover, Putin has made himself look good to his people by demonstrating that he is in control. The West has seen the fear of Russia’s control by another worse one. And Putin has found an excuse to cut off heads of scapegoats who annoyed him.
I believe that Putin has come out stronger, and that Prigozhin will continue to be paid for his services.
I ended the previous entry by saying that, in the next entry, I would address the issue of demographics, unless something makes me change my mind, …
That something has happened. So I’ll leave the demographics for the next one (unless there are new “algos”).
As always, I welcome comments on my email: pgonzalez@ie3.org