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Building the new order

Written by Pablo González and Pedro Nonay, trying to know how the new world will be.

Entry 6

Wagner Group.


June 30, 2023



New context.

I dedicate this entry, in its entirety, to try to analyze what happened in Russia last weekend with the apparent coup d’état of the Wagner Group in Russia and its “strange” resolution. In doing so, I am departing from the usual dynamic of these entries. I do so because I think that the matter will have importance in the construction of the new order, which is the objective I intend to analyze in this series of entries.

I think we will all agree that what happened fits very badly with logic, and that the way it is told to us fits much less. That should not surprise us, since it is obvious that no leader at war is going to publish his true intentions, motivations and negotiations for the enemy to know. The first conclusion is that everything we have read is most likely a lie, or an attempt at manipulation.

We will also agree that, when it is all over, it is very likely that these events will end up going down in history as a relevant milestone that changed the future (we will have to see which way).

To try to fulfill my goal of understanding what has happened, I have read much of what has been published (everything is impossible), looking for sources as different as possible, both by country of origin and by ideology of the media. In addition, I have searched for data on circumstances before and after the coup d’état (to see what has changed). I have also tried to look for the logics of the expected human behavior of the actors. We’ll see where I get to with the exercise.

Previous circumstances.

Before trying to decipher the “untold”, it is useful to keep in mind some information that was verified prior to the events. I have selected the following:

Prigozhin’s decision.

There is sure to have been a lot going on in the backroom in the moments leading up to it, but the first thing that has been in the news is the Wagner Group leader’s decision to advance his troops into Russia.

Prigozhin will have thought long and hard before making this decision, he will have chosen a target, and he will have weighed the risks. He is no novice, and it will almost certainly have been his most important decision to date, given the risks of the operation.

I can think of several alternatives that could have encouraged him to make that decision. I will list them, and then try to see the logical fit of each. They are as follows:

Whatever the decision he made last Friday, it is always possible that the course of events led him to change it in midstream. If that is the case, the decision to change was very quick, perhaps too quick to be logical.

On this matter, I find this article published in ZeroHedge to be lucid, although aggressive in its text.

What has happened until today.

The fact is that, after the start of its incursion into Russia:

My humble opinions.

After what happened, and considering the previous circumstances exposed, I think that:

The possible Putin – Wagner Group pact.

If such a secret pact had existed, it would have had many consequences:

Moreover, if the West chooses to continue the war, Putin has an army in Belarus (the Wagner Group), equipped with nuclear weapons. And that is closer to Kiev (and Poland) than Russia itself. Nothing good for the West in the face of that war, which means an improved position for Putin in the face of that option of escalating the War.

And, in the worst case scenario for Putin, if he ends up losing control of Russia, he can always go into exile in Belarus with his friends Lukashenko and Prigozhin, knowing that they have nuclear weapons. That would be something akin to becoming North Korea (not a very relevant place, but unassailable).

What I said some time ago.

I cant´t resist quoting here what I said in my entry of April 3, 2022. It said:

I believe that events are moving closer to these hypotheses. The economic damage from inflation in the West is a fact, with banks “on the ropes”. And the sociological damage in Russia is what has produced this apparent coup d’état. The “botched” exit may be perfectly reflected in what has happened these days. And that of China “delighted” is evident.

It seems that the takeover bid for the Wagner Group, attempted by the Russian military command, has paid off by taking away CEO Prigozhin’s business in Ukraine, but leaving him the one in Africa. Moreover, Putin has made himself look good to his people by demonstrating that he is in control. The West has seen the fear of Russia’s control by another worse one. And Putin has found an excuse to cut off heads of scapegoats who annoyed him.

I believe that Putin has come out stronger, and that Prigozhin will continue to be paid for his services.

I ended the previous entry by saying that, in the next entry, I would address the issue of demographics, unless something makes me change my mind, …

That something has happened. So I’ll leave the demographics for the next one (unless there are new “algos”).

As always, I welcome comments on my email: pgonzalez@ie3.org

If you have any feedback or comments on what I’ve written, feel free to send me an email at pgr@pablogonzalez.org.

You are allowed to use part of these writings. There’s no property rights. Please do it mentioning this websitte.

You can read another writings of Pablo here:

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