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Building the new order

Written by Pablo González and Pedro Nonay, trying to know how the new world will be.

Entry 10

BRICS and G20 Summits 

Bharat vs India – Changing times


October 1, 2023



My new context selection.

The recent news items I have selected to think about context shifts are as follows (and I make the comment that this context shift is accelerating):

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In this entry I digress on the issue I have been dealing with in previous ones, which is that of raw materials. I do so because I consider it more urgent to talk about what happened recently at the summits of the BRICS and G20 countries.

I will return to the subject in subsequent entries. Briefly, however, because there is a recent article published by researchers from IMDEA MATERIALS where they summarize the subject very well, and identify the insufficient raw materials in the world for the energy transition. They do not demonstrate their calculations, but there is no need for them to do so, given their reliability. I have known Javier Llorca for more than 40 years, who is the director of the Institute, and his scientific quality is overwhelming (as well as human), and recognized worldwide. You can see the article here.

The importance of the BRICS and G20 summits.

When I wrote the previous entry, the BRICS summit had already taken place. In fact, I quoted it in the usual opening part of my writings, which I call “new context”. But the summit of the G20 countries had not yet taken place.

Reading the much that has been published about both summits led me to try to delve deeper into the matter. So, I decided to search, read, and study the original statements signed by the participants in both summits. And compare them. … And draw my conclusions, which are the ones I will present in this entry.

For those interested in reading these original statements (in English), the link for the BRICS summit is here, and the link for the G20 summit is here. Be warned that they are long and boring to read because of the excess of diplomatic language and the many circumlocutions to say things without expressly saying them.

I provide here the way to access both statements, in which I have highlighted in blue the parts that have caught my attention, and I have included in red my own personal interpretations (here the BRICS one, and here the G20 one). Perhaps it is a quicker reading of the statements to go directly to what I have highlighted in color, although it is clear that this has the bias of my selection (without changing the original text).

The fact is that I am glad I did it, because I have drawn personal opinions somewhat different from what I have seen in the press. Opinions that I am happy to share below.

Previous comments.

The first thing that is striking is the closeness of the dates (the BRICS meeting was on August 23, and the G20 meeting was on September 10). In addition, we must pay close attention to what is mentioned  above by Antonio Guterres´ speech at the UN on September 19, that is, immediately after.

The next thing that is striking is the order of dates: first the BRICS, then the G20.

The venues are also striking: Johannesburg for BRICS, and New Delhi for G20. This has been prepared for a long time, but it is still significant that both venues are located in BRICS countries.

Taking into account the situation in which the world finds itself, of high instability due to the foreseeable negotiation of a new world order (as we have been commenting in these entries for quite some time now), these dates, priorities and places seem to be part of a staging. And the declarations that have been made almost confirm this.

We are building a world of two blocks of countries, which can be simplified as the block of the former developed countries, and the block of the former not so developed countries. Blocks that today are being called the West, and the Global South, although these are names that do not seem very appropriate, since it is difficult for me to call Japan and Australia Western countries, or to say that Russia is part of the South, …

What is each block? 

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The BRICS bloc (an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) brings together countries that claim to be the voice of the formerly less developed but now very powerful countries. It was formed in 2008 as a grouping of countries to defend a joint position of these countries before international organizations. 

These are countries that do not have much to do with each other, but are united by the feeling that their voice is not well represented in international organizations. It can be said that they feel marginalized by the countries that still rule the world, and they claim their growing strength.

On the other hand, the G20 bloc was created in 1999 and strengthened in 2008. Its objective is not to be the antithesis of the BRICS bloc. In theory, they are intended to represent the countries whose economies are the most relevant at the global level. Its members include countries from the West, and also from the so-called Global South. What happens is that, in practice, and so far, it can be considered more controlled by Western countries.

The relationship of the G20 with international organizations (UN, IMF, WHO, ILO, WTO, …) is very strong. In fact, they belong to its forum. It is not exactly like that, but you can almost say that they give them instructions or lines of work.

From what has been said, the BRICS bloc can be interpreted as a union of forces to claim a greater share of power before the G20, and greater influence before international organizations. These are issues that, in view of what has been said below, they seem to be achieving.

Meeting attendees

Putin’s non-attendance at both summits has come as no surprise. The possibility of his arrest is clear. It may also affect the fear that “his chair will be taken away from him” if he leaves the country.

However, Xi Jinping’s non-attendance at the G20 has been significant, when he did attend the BRICS meeting. There may be many explanations, but one of them is to send his message of greater support to the countries of the Global South.

New members of the blocks.

Following the two summits, BRICS has invited Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join its bloc. The decision will be made on January 1, 2024.

In addition, the G20 has accepted the African Union as a new member (they say so in their item 76), which is something that BRICS has appreciated (it is stated in their item 35). In this matter, it is worth noting China’s strong funding of the African Union, as well as reading something of what this union represents (you can do it here).

After that, the BRICS bloc combines greater representation of inhabitants and world GDP, and they have more strength within the G20. This with the unequal demographic representation in international organizations, because I recall that in the UN each country has one vote, i.e., Monaco has the same weight as China.

The following tweet reflects very well the power that agglutinates the BRICS bloc. 

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Statements that I find noteworthy.

With the logical bias of my opinions, I share here the statements that have most caught my attention, sorted by subject. Of course, they speak of many other issues, but these are the ones I have selected.

About the Ukrainian War.

My conclusion from the reading is that the BRICS have said that they do not blame Russia, … and that they support it. And, the G20 has agreed not to make unanimous criticism of Russia, leaving, only, mentions of wishes for peace. I base this conclusion on the following mentions in both statements.



About international organizations.

My conclusion can be summarized as follows: the BRICS countries are saying something along the lines of: “we are not so weak anymore, and we claim our right to have a greater voice in international institutions”. And the G20 is doing something similar to surrendering to these arguments, accepting the need for changes in these bodies, but without specifying too much about the times and forms of these changes.

I base my conclusions on the following points from the statements.

The BRICS declaration devotes many direct and indirect mentions to this issue. I highlight the following. 

On the other hand, on the issues of international organizations, the G20 declaration says:

More relations between BRICS, … and their currencies.

It is also striking that the BRICS declaration mentions several times the issue of relations between the countries of the Global South, and the currency they will use in the future for this purpose. 

It can be summarized in a declaration of strength, and in the intention to organize, as a priority, among themselves, with the consequences that this threat could mean for the current global order.

The threat this poses to the dollar is explained quite well here, and here.

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On this issue, BRICS declaration says:

On environmental objectives (SGD). 

In the G20 declaration, they recognize that the objectives they had for environmental issues are going badly. That they have to lower them, and listen to the opinions of the BRICS countries.

In point 23 they expressly acknowledge that the SDGs are doing poorly, having achieved only 12% so far. 

Also, in point 33, they recognize that the objectives of the Paris Agreement will not be achieved, and they lower the targets set therein.

About cryptocurrencies.

I find it significant that, in declarations of this type, they even mention cryptocurrencies.

I think it is a recognition of their strength, despite what they would like. They elaborate on the issue in this article.

They say little, in the official declarations, but it is enough. Specifically, the G20 one, in its point 58, talks about monitoring the rapid evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.



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Readings that have interested me.

In the process of writing this entry I have come across many issues of other subjects. I would like to share the following:

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That’s as far as I go for today. In the next entry I will continue with the subject of raw materials (I think).

As always, I welcome comments on my email: pgonzalez@ie3.org

If you have any feedback or comments on what I’ve written, feel free to send me an email at pgonzalez@ie3.org.

You are allowed to use part of these writings. There’s no property rights. Please do it mentioning this websitte.

You can read another writings of Pablo here:

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