Protection against the “storm” Entry 13

Before getting into the subject of this entry, I would like to comment on the latest news that may define the future, as we have been discussing in previous entries:

The US and the European Union have reached an agreement on the famous tariffs (news here, and in many other places).

This is related to what we have been calling the “signing” of countries to the blocs (the US and China). Already “signed” to the US are the EU, the UK, and Japan. Now Trump will focus on secondary signings. He may also begin talks with China to see if they can reach a coexistence agreement, or if there will be a trade war between the blocs.
On July 6 and 7, the BRICS summit took place. It received very little coverage in the Western media (you can see some here). It was a much less ambitious summit than on previous occasions. Neither Putin nor Xi Jinping attended. The result is little more than a reiteration of what they have been saying all along.

It seems that they are waiting for “something” before moving forward with their strategic objectives. I believe that “something” may be the outcome of the talks with the US.
The US Congress has passed legislation on cryptocurrencies (news here). They intend to make their use viable.

This could be an important step toward (slowly) changing the global monetary order. I see two possible consequences:
- Bitcoin’s status as a store of value is reinforced. This will drive up its price due to higher demand.
- It will boost the use of USDT (Tether) for international trade payments (even in the BRICS bloc). As USDT is, in theory, backed by dollars, the Tether company will be a major buyer of US debt. This means greater demand for US treasury bonds, so they can continue to increase their already high debt. And they can do so without fear that the Fed’s interest rate cuts will reduce demand for bonds.
  
  In other words, I believe Trump will get his desired interest rate cut. I also believe that the dollar will not lose too much strength anytime soon. That said, I have my doubts that Tether is a good thing in the long run.

Now we come to the subject of this entry.

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I wrote this entry in December 2023. In it, I discussed geothermal energy as a very possible solution for the future. I said that further development of deep drilling was necessary, as well as political and economic support.

I found it interesting to see how the technology has evolved since then. To do this, I fed the article into the AI and asked it to research it to update the data.

The AI’s conclusions summarize that the trend described in that entry was correct:

“Your December 2023 article is largely visionary and accurate in terms of the potential of geothermal energy and the role of Quaise Energy. However, developments in 2024 and 2025, particularly Quaise’s field demonstrations and the growth of other startups, have exceeded some of your projections, making deep geothermal more viable than you anticipated.”

Naturally, I liked the “visionary and accurate” part. I also liked being wrong when it says that deep geothermal energy is more viable than I anticipated (I wish all my mistakes were like that).

In addition, AI provided me with new data and ideas with which to update my previous entry. That’s what I’ll do next, because I think it’s very interesting.

There is hope: geothermal energy.

Geothermal energy is one of the renewable sources with the greatest potential, although historically it has received less attention than solar or wind energy.

This is changing rapidly thanks to technological innovations led by companies such as Quaise Energy, Fervo Energy, Sage Geosystems, and Eavor, which are revolutionizing the global energy landscape.

In this entry, we will explore how geothermal energy can become a key solution for sustainable energy supply, with advances making this technology more viable than ever.

The most straightforward summary is that geothermal energy harnesses the Earth’s internal heat.

As is well known, the Earth is usually defined as being divided into layers (core, mantle, and crust). The core is something like a huge ball of fire, consisting of iron and nickel (that material we would so badly need on the surface) at a temperature of around 5,700 degrees and under extremely high pressure.

From the core to the surface, the temperature decreases, but not uniformly: in volcanic areas, for example, high temperatures are found at shallower depths.

There are no exact measurements, but it is estimated that the heat stored in the first 10 kilometers of the Earth’s crust contains 50,000 times more energy than all the world’s oil and gas reserves combined. Despite this abundance, by 2023, only 10,700 megawatts (MW) of geothermal capacity had been harnessed globally. However, by 2025, this figure has grown significantly, reaching nearly 16,000 MW, thanks to new projects and technologies.

With this in mind, a curious concept arises. It is that we have one source of energy “above” us, which is the sun, and another “below” us, which is the earth’s core. It is like heaven and hell in religion. Incidentally, religions, since before the advent of science (or did they know anything?), defined hell as a place of fire, which is what the earth’s core consists of. Of course, religions also define hell as something evil. Perhaps this prejudice is one of the reasons why we have investigated more how to harness the energy of the sun (heaven) than that of the core (hell). But we should abandon this prejudice because, although far away, the earth’s core is much closer to us than the sun (another religious analogy: hell is more accessible to us than heaven). I think this is a great paradox.

The problem is that the Earth’s core, although much closer than the sun, is about 5,000 km deep. Since the Earth’s radius is about 6,500 km (rounded), that tells us that this “ball of fire” that is the core has a radius of about 1,500 km, which gives us an idea of the amount of energy there.

Due to the depth of the core, and given our current prospecting technology, it is impossible to think of “reaching the core” and directly harnessing its energy. However, let us remember that we do not need to reach the sun to harness its energy either.

For reference, the deepest hole ever drilled, the Kola Superdeep Borehole in the Arctic Circle, reached only 12.2 km (data here).

The fact is that at depths of between 3 and 20 km, temperatures of 20 to 500 °C are found in many places. And that is enough to generate useful energy.

Geothermal technologies

Geothermal technologies vary depending on the temperature available. At low temperatures (20-100 °C), it is used for domestic hot water (DHW) and air conditioning, especially in new buildings. At higher temperatures (>120 °C), electricity can be generated using steam turbines. There is a summary of the different technologies here. It is also explained well here, which includes the following summary chart:

Based on the above, except in very specific locations (volcanic areas) and with current technology, we will only be able to use low-temperature geothermal energy for air conditioning at accessible depths. That is not insignificant, but it does not solve the global energy supply problem.

On the other hand, I would like to mention the problem caused by existing regulations and the bureaucracy involved in optimizing these uses. As I said above, solving the problem of heating and cooling buildings with geothermal energy is technically very accessible. In fact, it is widely used in new buildings. However, in older buildings, which have poorer insulation and higher consumption, it is not usually allowed because it would have to be done from the sidewalks (as the buildings are already built). And those sidewalks are not owned by the building owner, so they are not usually allowed to make the “hole” to access the geothermal heat. Given this, some may say that the argument for denying the license seems logical, but I would remind you that the other energies used to heat the building (electricity or gas) reach it via the sidewalks, even if they come from another infrastructure owner, so the argument is not so sustainable.

The big change in energy

If a technology could be developed to drill deep wells (up to 20 km) at reasonable cost, electrical energy could be generated from the heat of the earth in almost any location. As much as we wanted! And it would be clean, sustainable energy.

Quaise Energy (https://www.quaise.energy/), a company founded by MIT engineers, is leading this change. Its technology combines conventional drilling with millimeter waves generated by a gyrotron, a device originally developed for nuclear fusion. This “ray” vaporizes deep rock, allowing drilling to previously unattainable depths.

In 2025, Quaise has achieved significant milestones: in May, they demonstrated their technology on an oil rig in Houston, Texas, drilling 3 meters in real conditions, which, although very shallow, is an experiment outside of laboratory conditions, which is already a milestone. They are also planning tests to reach 100 meters in Marble Falls, Texas, this year (news here), with the goal of producing superheated steam in 2026 and operating a converted power plant by 2028. Their levelized cost of energy (LCoE) calculator indicates that deep geothermal could compete with natural gas ($39-101/MWh) and coal ($68-166/MWh).

In addition to Quaise Energy, other startups have made significant progress in 2024 and 2025, broadening the geothermal landscape:

Fervo Energy: Has completed its first commercial project and is developing Cape Station (400 MW) in Utah, with initial results showing reduced drilling times and costs, exceeding the U.S. Department of Energy’s expectations for enhanced geothermal systems.

Sage Geosystems: Is developing a geothermal energy storage system in Christine, Texas, that uses pressurized underground water as a 3 MW “ground battery,” successfully tested in 2023 and funded with $17 million in 2024.

Eavor: Has advanced a closed-loop project in Germany that will deliver 8.2 MW of electricity and 64 MW of heating by 2025-2026, demonstrating the viability of geothermal systems without fracking.

These innovations show that geothermal energy is at a “tipping point.”

Deep geothermal energy offers unique advantages: it produces no waste, requires little surface area, and can utilize existing thermal power plants, replacing fossil fuels with geothermal heat. In addition, supercritical water (at >374 °C) carries 5-10 times more energy than conventional steam, increasing the efficiency of wells, which could generate 25-50 MW each. Beyond electricity, geothermal energy can be applied to district heating and industrial processes that require intense heat.

However, technical challenges remain, such as ensuring the stability of deep wells and managing the extreme temperature and pressure conditions in the supercritical regime. Collaboration with institutions such as the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne has validated heat transfer models, but materials engineering remains an area of active development.

Geopolitics and geothermal energy

Geothermal energy does not depend on energy resources located in specific countries, as the Earth’s heat is available globally. This eliminates geopolitical issues related to the extraction or transport of fossil fuels. In addition, by converting existing thermal power plants, the need for new infrastructure is reduced.

However, deep drilling requires special steels that are resistant to high temperatures and corrosion, which means using molybdenum and titanium.

Molybdenum reserves are concentrated in China (35%), the US (21%), Chile (12%), and Peru (3%), while titanium is found in Norway (23.6%), Canada (19.4%), South Africa (12.1%), China (11%), and other countries.

Although there is no critical shortage, growing demand for these materials for other renewable technologies could lead to competition in the future, especially for the BRICS+ bloc in the case of titanium.

Energy storage is another aspect to consider, as geothermal production does not always coincide with demand. Solutions such as transforming excess energy into green hydrogen for later use are gaining traction.

A promising future

Geothermal energy is experiencing a renaissance thanks to technological innovations and growing political and economic support.

In 2025, investment in geothermal energy grew by 85%, with projects such as Cape Station demonstrating its competitiveness without subsidies.

In the US, bipartisan support and proposals to reduce regulatory barriers are accelerating the deployment of projects. With companies such as Quaise, Fervo, Sage, and Eavor leading the way, geothermal energy has the potential to become a clean, abundant, and accessible source of energy anywhere in the world. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that these promises will soon materialize, offering significant relief for humanity as it transitions to a sustainable future.

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As always, I welcome comments at my email address: pgonzalez@ie3.org